Attribution tactics that work for marketers

Start with the right question

Attribution is a counterfactual question:

“What would customer value have been if this loyalty program (or this loyalty tactic) didn’t exist?”

You can’t directly observe that alternate universe, so the goal is a defensible estimate with clear assumptions, not perfect certainty.

The method ladder (strongest → weakest evidence)

Use the strongest feasible method and be explicit about what it can and can’t prove.

The non-negotiables (credibility rules)

1. 1. Never lead with member vs non-member “lift.”It’s usually self-selection.
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5. 2. Separate what you can test vs what you must model.
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9. 3. Treat attribution as estimation. Avoid false precision; document assumptions.
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13. 4.Watch for double counting. Loyalty rarely runs in isolation.
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Mini-example: why“member vs non-member” breaks

If members spend $600/year and non-members spend $200/year, it’s tempting to claim loyalty drove +$400/year.

But if the reason customers join is that they already planned to spend more (and non-members didn’t), most of that gap is selection—not lift. Finance will treatthis as a credibility red flag.

What to do instead

• Use experiments where feasible: A/B test specific loyalty treatments (bonus points offers, perks, thresholds). Measure lift plus cost impact so you’re not “buying” revenue at a loss.
• Use models for long-horizon impact: For program-level incrementality, rely on modeled counterfactuals over an explicit horizon (e.g., 24 months) and show sensitivity.
• Use KPIs to manage progress: Track a small set of economic inflection points (activation, repeat behavior, redemption milestones) and map KPI movement to value, so leadership can manage levers while ROI matures.
• Make overlap visible: If other channels/promos run concurrently, define rules to reduce double counting(exclude, flag, isolate with tests, or model separately).

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